Using accounting ratios in predicting financial distress: An empirical investigation in the Vietnam stock market

Financial distress prediction is an important and practical research topic for many stakeholders

and has attracted extensive studies over the past decades. This paper investigates the challenging

issue of financial distress in Vietnam by distinguishing “healthy” companies from “financially

distressed” companies using a data sample of firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock

Exchange. Employing the logistic regression model to predict financial distress with a unique

data set, we characterize the determinants of financial distress in terms of firm accounting and

financial ratios over the period from 2007 to 2012. The results indicate that financial ratios can be

employed as an early warning of financial distress as financial ratios are significantly correlated

with the probability of firm financial distress.

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3 24 0. 00 00 35 4. 95 22 0. 00 00 32 4. 40 49 0. 00 00 36 0. 25 32 0. 00 00 LE V ER A G E 0. 10 44 49 0. 90 32 -0 .1 05 49 9 0. 90 39 TU R N 1. 42 84 23 0. 00 07 1. 44 44 11 0. 00 06 S_ C A SH -0 .0 02 37 7 0. 11 41 -0 .0 02 46 7 0. 08 97 -0 .0 02 10 1 0. 13 94 -0 .0 02 04 3 0. 12 89 S_ R EC E 0. 19 86 04 0. 00 43 0. 17 17 23 0. 00 89 M cF ad de n R -s qu ar ed 0. 29 89 66 0. 29 84 55 0. 29 25 18 0. 28 31 48 Pr ob (L R st at is tic ) 0. 00 00 0. 00 00 0. 00 00 0. 00 00 O bs w ith D ep =0 36 36 36 36 O bs w ith D ep =1 94 6 94 6 94 6 94 6 M od el 5 M od el 6 M od el 7 M od el 8 V ar ia bl e C oe ff ic ie nt Pr ob . C oe ff ic ie nt Pr ob . C oe ff ic ie nt Pr ob . C oe ff ic ie nt Pr ob . C 1. 08 57 79 0. 00 1 1. 16 48 64 0. 00 02 2. 53 06 63 0. 00 00 2. 74 78 85 0. 00 00 W O C A 3. 48 77 55 0. 00 00 2. 44 46 58 0. 00 07 0. 84 76 24 0. 05 2 1. 34 02 99 0. 01 69 PR O FI T 1. 25 34 83 0. 02 1 0. 67 71 08 0. 11 58 -2 .0 13 27 1 0. 01 46 -1 .7 22 87 5 0. 03 56 EP S 78 .4 66 36 0. 00 01 LE V ER A G E 1. 25 71 75 0. 00 06 C A SH 77 .7 91 61 0. 00 01 96 .7 51 02 0. 00 00 92 .8 78 35 0. 00 00 TU R N 1. 16 32 16 0. 00 13 -0 .0 03 14 1 0. 01 12 S_ C A SH -0 .0 02 60 1 0. 04 79 -0 .0 02 79 4 0. 04 18 -0 .0 02 33 4 0. 05 48 S_ R EC E 0. 19 13 84 0. 00 28 0. 13 24 92 0. 01 97 M cF ad de n R -s qu ar ed 0. 21 74 75 0. 21 09 34 0. 19 30 98 0. 16 71 91 Pr ob (L R st at is tic ) 0. 00 00 0. 00 00 0. 00 00 0. 00 00 O bs w ith D ep =0 36 36 36 36 O bs w ith D ep =1 94 6 94 6 94 6 94 6 Journal of Economics and Development Vol. 17, No.1, April 201548 stakeholders have been concerned with individ- ual firm performance assessment. This study has been conducted to find out the relationship between a set of financial ratios and the proba- bility of financial distress for listed companies in Viet Nam one year prior to failure. It is generally believed that symptoms for financial distress of a firm can be observed prior to a state in which a firm encounters fi- nancial difficulty or even financial crisis. Our results indicate that firm financial ratios could be employed to analyze and predict an early warning of financial distress in firms. Indica- tors that could be employed to investigate the probability of firm financial distress are liquid- ity ratio, profitability ratio, cash flow ratio and asset turnover ratio as presented in the analysis. Our results provide strong practical impli- cations for both firm management, investors and authorities in evaluating firms and predict- ing firm financial distress. 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