Quản trị kinh doanh - Chapter 9: Project management

Chapter 9Project ManagementLecture OutlineProject PlanningProject SchedulingProject ControlCPM/PERTProbabilistic Activity TimesMicrosoft ProjectProject Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-offCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-2Project Management ProcessProjectunique, one-time operational activity or effort9-3Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Project Management ProcessCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-4Project Management ProcessCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-5Project ElementsObjectiveScopeContract requirementsSchedulesResourcesPersonnelControlRisk and problem analysisCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-6Project Team and Project ManagerProject teammade up of individuals from various areas and departments within a companyMatrix organizationa team structure with members from functional areas, depending on skills requiredProject managermost important member of project teamCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-7Scope StatementScope statementa document that provides an understanding, justification, and expected result of a projectStatement of workwritten description of objectives of a projectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-8Work Breakdown StructureWork breakdown structure (WBS)Breaks a project into components, subcomponents, activities, and tasksCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-9Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-10Work Breakdown Structure for Computer Order Processing System ProjectResponsibility Assignment MatrixOrganizational Breakdown Structure (OBS)a chart that shows which organizational units are responsible for work itemsResponsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM)shows who is responsible for work in a projectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-11Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-12Responsibility Assignment MatrixGlobal and Diversity Issues in Project ManagementGlobal project teams are formed from different genders, cultures, ethnicities, etc.Diversity among team members can add an extra dimension to project planningCultural research and communication are important elements in the planning processCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-13Project SchedulingStepsDefine activitiesSequence activitiesEstimate timeDevelop scheduleTechniquesGantt chartCPM/PERTSoftwareMicrosoft ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-14Gantt ChartGraph or bar chart Bars represent the time for each taskBars also indicate status of tasksProvides visual display of project scheduleSlackamount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the projectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-15Example of Gantt ChartCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-16| | | | |ActivityDesign house and obtain financingLay foundationOrder and receive materialsBuild houseSelect paintSelect carpetFinish work0 2 4 6 8 10MonthMonth1 3 5 7 9Project ControlTime managementCost managementPerformance managementEarned Value Analysis – standard procedure tonumerically measure a project’s progressforecast its completion date and cost measure schedule and budget variationCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-17Project ControlQuality managementCommunicationEnterprise project managementCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-18CPM/PERTCritical Path Method (CPM)DuPont & Remington-RandDeterministic task timesActivity-on-node network constructionProject Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)US Navy and Booz, Allen & HamiltonProbabilistic task time estimates Activity-on-arrow network constructionCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-19Project Network Activity-on-node (AON)nodes represent activitiesarrows show precedence relationshipsActivity-on-arrow (AOA)arrows represent activitiesnodes are events for points in timeEventcompletion or beginning of an activity in a projectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-20132BranchNodeAOA Project Network for a HouseCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-21320131111246735Lay foundationDesign house and obtain financingOrder and receive materialsDummyFinish workSelect carpetSelect paintBuild houseConcurrent ActivitiesDummytwo or more activities cannot share same start and end nodesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-2223Lay foundationOrder material(a) Incorrect precedence relationship(b) Correct precedence relationship342DummyLay foundationOrder material120AON Network for House Building ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-2313224331516171StartDesign house and obtain financingOrder &receive materialsSelect paintSelect carpetLay foundationBuild houseFinish workActivity NumberActivity TimeCritical PathCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-24Critical pathLongest path through a networkMinimum project completion timeA: 1-2-4-73 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 9 months B: 1-2-5-6-73 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 monthsC: 1-3-4-73 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 monthsD: 1-3-5-6-73 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 months13224331516171StartActivity Start TimesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-2513224331516171StartStart at 3 monthsStart at 6 monthsStart at 5 monthsFinish at 9 monthsFinishNode ConfigurationCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-26103303ActivitydurationActivitynumberEarlieststartLateststartLatest finishEarliestfinishActivity SchedulingEarliest start time (ES)earliest time an activity can start ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessorsForward passstarts at beginning of CPM/PERT network to determine earliest activity timesEarliest finish time (EF)earliest time an activity can finishearliest start time plus activity timeEF= ES + tCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-27Earliest Activity Start and Finish TimesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-281031235233415561458366717891StartDesign house and obtain financingSelect paintLay foundationSelect carpetBuild houseFinish workOrder and receive materialsActivity SchedulingLatest start time (LS)Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time LS= LF - tLatest finish time (LF)latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path timeLF = minimum LS of immediate predecessorsBackward passDetermines latest activity times by starting at the end of CPM/PERT network and working forwardCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-29Latest Activity Start and Finish TimesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-30031031352352453341675561584583676671897891StartDesign house and obtain financingSelect paintLay foundationSelect carpetBuild houseFinish workOrder and receive materialsActivity SlackCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-31* Critical Path09988*717867616756508855*414534305533*203300*1Slack SEFLFESLSActivityProbabilistic Time EstimatesBeta distributionprobability distribution traditionally used in CPM/PERTCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-32a = optimistic estimatem = most likely time estimateb = pessimistic time estimatewhereMean (expected time): t =a + 4m + b6Variance: 2 =2b - a6Examples of Beta DistributionsCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-33P(time)P(time)P(time)Timeamtbamtbm = tTimeTimebaProject with Probabilistic Time EstimatesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-34Finish23,6,931,3,516,8,1052,3,463,4,542,4,1272,2,283,7,1192,4,6101,4,7111,10,13Equipment installationSystem developmentPosition recruitingEquipment testing and modificationManual testingJob TrainingOrientationSystem trainingSystem testingFinal debuggingSystem changeoverStartActivity Time EstimatesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-35 1 6 8 10 8 0.44 2 3 6 9 6 1.00 3 1 3 5 3 0.44 4 2 4 12 5 2.78 5 2 3 4 3 0.11 6 3 4 5 4 0.11 7 2 2 2 2 0.00 8 3 7 11 7 1.78 9 2 4 6 4 0.4410 1 4 7 4 1.0011 1 10 13 9 4.00 TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) MEAN TIME VARIANCEACTIVITY a m b t б2Activity Early, Late Times & SlackCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-36ACTIVITY t б ES EF LS LF S 1 8 0.44 0 8 1 9 1 2 6 1.00 0 6 0 6 0 3 3 0.44 0 3 2 5 2 4 5 2.78 8 13 16 21 8 5 3 0.11 6 9 6 9 0 6 4 0.11 3 7 5 9 2 7 2 0.00 3 5 14 16 11 8 7 1.78 9 16 9 16 0 9 4 0.44 9 13 12 16 310 4 1.00 13 17 21 25 811 9 4.00 16 25 16 25 0Earliest, Latest, and SlackCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-37108819303325481351621637459735214169913412161013171032066065693698916791611162591625Critical Path 2-5-8-11FinishStartTotal Project VarianceCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-382 = б22 + б52 + б82 + б112 = 1.00 + 0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00 = 6.89 weeksCPM/PERT With OM ToolsCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-39Probabilistic Network AnalysisCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-40Determine probability that project is completed within specified timewhere  = tp = project mean time  = project standard deviation x = proposed project time Z = number of standard deviations that x is from the meanZ =x - Normal Distribution of Project TimeCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-41 = tpTimexZProbabilitySouthern TextileCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-42What is probability that project is completed within 30 weeks? 2 = 6.89 weeks = 6.89 = 2.62 weeksZ = = = 1.91x - 30 - 252.62From Table A.1, (appendix A) a Z score of 1.91 corresponds to a probability of 0.4719. Thus P(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719 = 25Time (weeks)x = 30P(x  30 weeks)Southern TextileCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-43What is probability that project is completed within 22 weeks? 2 = 6.89 weeks = 6.89 = 2.62 weeksZ = = = -1.14x - 22 - 252.62From Table A.1, (appendix A) a Z score of 1.14 corresponds to a probability of 0.3729. Thus P(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271 = 25Time (weeks)x = 22P(x  22 weeks)= 0.12710.3729Microsoft ProjectPopular software package for project management and CPM/PERT analysisRelatively easy to useCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-44Microsoft ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-45Click on “Tasks”First step; Start DateMicrosoft ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-46PrecedencerelationshipsClick on “Format” then ”Timescale”to scale Gantt chart.Gantt chart; click on “View”to activateCreate precedencerelationships;click on predecessoractivity, thenholding “Ctrl” Key,click on successoractivity.Microsoft ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-47Click on “View” then Network DiagramCritical pathin redMicrosoft Project – Zoom ViewCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-48Microsoft Project – Task InformationCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-49Enter % completionMicrosoft Project – Degree of CompletionCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-50Activities 1, 2 and 3100% completeBlack bars showdegree of completionPERT Analysis with Microsoft ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-51Click on PERT EntrySheet to enter 3time estimatesClick on PERT calculator to computeactivity durationPERT Analysis with Microsoft ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-52PERT Analysis with Microsoft ProjectCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-53Project CrashingCrashingreducing project time by expending additional resourcesCrash timean amount of time an activity is reducedCrash costcost of reducing activity timeGoalreduce project duration at minimum costCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-54Project Network – Building a HouseCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-551122841234546474Normal Time and Costvs. Crash Time and CostCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-56$7,000 –$6,000 –$5,000 –$4,000 –$3,000 –$2,000 –$1,000 –– | | | | | | | 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 WeeksNormal activityNormal timeNormal costCrash timeCrashed activityCrash costSlope = crash cost per weekProject CrashingCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-57 TOTAL NORMAL CRASH ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME TIME NORMAL CRASH CRASH TIME COST PERACTIVITY (WEEKS) (WEEKS) COST COST (WEEKS) WEEK1 12 7 $3,000 $5,000 5 $4002 8 5 2,000 3,500 3 5003 4 3 4,000 7,000 1 3,0004 12 9 50,000 71,000 3 7,0005 4 1 500 1,100 3 2006 4 1 500 1,100 3 2007 4 3 15,000 22,000 1 7,000 $75,000 $110,700Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-58Project Duration:36 weeks1122834546474$400$500$3000$7000$200$200$7000124FROM 172834546474$400$500$3000$7000$200$200$7000124Project Duration:31 weeksAdditional Cost:$2000TOTime-Cost Relationship Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-59Crashing costs increase as project duration decreasesIndirect costs increase as project duration increasesReduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costsTime-Cost TradeoffCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.9-60Cost ($)Project durationCrashing TimeMinimum cost = optimal project timeTotal project costIndirect costDirect costCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.6-61Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.All rights reserved. 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