Quản trị kinh doanh - Chapter 14: Sales and capacity planning

Chapter 14Sales and Capacity PlanningLecture OutlineThe Sales and Operations Planning ProcessStrategies for Adjusting CapacityStrategies for Managing DemandQuantitative Techniques for Aggregate PlanningHierarchical Nature of PlanningAggregate Planning for ServicesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-2Sales and Operations PlanningDetermines resource capacity to meet demand over an intermediate time horizonAggregate refers to sales and operations planning for product lines or familiesSales and Operations planning (S&OP) matches supply and demandObjectivesEstablish a company wide plan for allocating resourcesDevelop an economic strategy for meeting demandCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-3Sales and Operations Planning ProcessCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-4Monthly S&OP Planning ProcessCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-5Meeting Demand StrategiesAdjusting capacityResources to meet demand are acquired and maintained over the time horizon of the planMinor variations in demand are handled with overtime or under-timeManaging demandProactive demand managementCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-6Strategies for Adjusting CapacityLevel productionProducing at a constant rate and using inventory to absorb fluctuations in demandChase demandHiring and firing workers to match demandPeak demandMaintaining resources for high-demand levelsCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-7Strategies for Adjusting CapacityOvertime and under-timeIncrease or decrease working hoursSubcontractingLet outside companies complete the workPart-time workersHire part-time workers to complete the workBackorderingProvide the service or product at a later time periodCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-8Level ProductionCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-9DemandUnitsTimeProductionChase DemandCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-10DemandUnitsTimeProductionStrategies for Managing DemandShifting demand into other time periodsIncentivesSales promotionsAdvertising campaignsOffering products or services with counter-cyclical demand patternsPartnering with suppliers to reduce information distortion along the supply chain14-11Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Quantitative Techniques For APPure StrategiesMixed StrategiesLinear ProgrammingTransportation MethodOther Quantitative TechniquesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-12Pure StrategiesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-13 Hiring cost = $100 per worker Firing cost = $500 per worker Inventory carrying cost = $0.50 pound per quarter Regular production cost per pound = $2.00 Production per employee = 1,000 pounds per quarter Beginning work force = 100 workersQUARTER SALES FORECAST (LB)Spring 80,000Summer 50,000Fall 120,000Winter 150,000Level Production StrategyCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-14Level production= 100,000 pounds(50,000 + 120,000 + 150,000 + 80,000)4Spring 80,000 100,000 20,000Summer 50,000 100,000 70,000Fall 120,000 100,000 50,000Winter 150,000 100,000 0 400,000 140,000Cost of Level Production Strategy(400,000 X $2.00) + (140,00 X $.50) = $870,000 SALES PRODUCTIONQUARTER FORECAST PLAN INVENTORYChase Demand StrategyCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-15Spring 80,000 80,000 80 0 20Summer 50,000 50,000 50 0 30 Fall 120,000 120,000 120 70 0Winter 150,000 150,000 150 30 0 100 50 SALES PRODUCTION WORKERS WORKERS WORKERSQUARTER FORECAST PLAN NEEDED HIRED FIRED Cost of Chase Demand Strategy(400,000 X $2.00) + (100 x $100) + (50 x $500) = $835,000 Level Production with ExcelCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-16Inventory atend of summerInput by user=400,000/4Cost of level production= inventory costs + production costsChase Demand with ExcelCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-17Workforce requirementscalculated by systemNo. of workershired in fallProduction input by user;production =demandCost of chasedemand = hiring +firing + productionMixed StrategyCombination of Level Production and Chase Demand strategiesExample policiesno more than x% of workforce can be laid off in one quarterinventory levels cannot exceed x dollarsSome industries may shut down manufacturing during the low demand season and schedule employee vacations during that timeCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-18General Linear Programming (LP) ModelLP gives an optimal solution, but demand and costs must be linearLetWt = workforce size for period tPt =units produced in period tIt =units in inventory at the end of period tFt =number of workers fired for period tHt = number of workers hired for period tCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-19LP MODELCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-20 Minimize Z = $100 (H1 + H2 + H3 + H4) + $500 (F1 + F2 + F3 + F4) + $0.50 (I1 + I2 + I3 + I4) + $2 (P1 + P2 + P3 + P4)Subject to P1 - I1 = 80,000 (1) Demand I1 + P2 - I2 = 50,000 (2) constraints I2 + P3 - I3 = 120,000 (3) I3 + P4 - I4 = 150,000 (4) Production 1000 W1 = P1 (5) constraints 1000 W2 = P2 (6) 1000 W3 = P3 (7) 1000 W4 = P4 (8) 100 + H1 - F1 = W1 (9) Work force W1 + H2 - F2 = W2 (10) constraints W2 + H3 - F3 = W3 (11) W3 + H4 - F4 = W4 (12)Setting up the SpreadsheetCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-21Target cell;cost of solutiongoes hereSolver will put thesolution hereWhen model is complete, SolveClick here nextDemand ConstraintWorkforce ConstraintProduction ConstraintCells where solution appearsSetting up the SpreadsheetCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-22Click these boxesThe LP SolutionCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-23Optimal production planCost of optimal solutionSolution is a mixof inventory, hiringand firingExtra report optionsLevel Production for QuantumCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-24Level = 12,000/12 = 1,000Input by userExcel calculates theseCost of level productionChase Demand for QuantumCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-25Input by userExcel calculates theseCost of chase demandNo. workershired in Feb.LP Solution for QuantumCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-26Solver foundthis solutionConstraintequationsin thesecellsOptimal solutionTransportation MethodCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-27 1 900 1000 100 500 2 1500 1200 150 500 3 1600 1300 200 500 4 3000 1300 200 500 Regular production cost $20/unitOvertime production cost $25/unitSubcontracting cost $28/unitInventory holding cost $3/unit-periodBeginning inventory 300 units EXPECTED REGULAR OVERTIME SUBCONTRACTQUARTER DEMAND CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITYTransportation TableauCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-28Transportation TableauCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-29Burruss’ Production PlanCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-30 1 900 1000 100 0 500 2 1500 1200 150 250 600 3 1600 1300 200 500 1000 4 3000 1300 200 500 0 Total 7000 4800 650 1250 2100 REGULAR SUB- ENDINGPERIOD DEMAND PRODUCTION OVERTIME CONTRACT INVENTORYCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Period 2’s endinginventoryRegular productionfor period 1Cost of solutionExcel and Transportation Method14-31Other Quantitative TechniquesLinear decision rule (LDR)Search decision rule (SDR)Management coefficients modelCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-32Hierarchical Nature of PlanningCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-33ItemsProduct lines or familiesIndividual productsComponentsManufacturing operationsResource LevelPlantsIndividual machinesCritical work centersProduction PlanningCapacity PlanningResource requirements plan Rough-cut capacity planCapacity requirements planInput/ output controlSales and Operations PlanMaster production scheduleMaterial requirements planShop floor scheduleAll work centersDisaggregationCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-34Breaking an aggregate plan into more detailed plansCreate Master Production Schedule for Material Requirements Planning Collaborative PlanningSharing information and synchronizing production across supply chainPart of CPFR (collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment)involves selecting products to be jointly managed, creating a single forecast of customer demand, and synchronizing production across supply chainCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-35Available-to-Promise (ATP)Quantity of items that can be promised to customerDifference between planned production and customer orders already receivedCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-36AT in period 1 = (On-hand quantity + MPS in period 1) – (CO until the next period of planned production)ATP in period n = (MPS in period n) – (CO until the next period of planned production) Capable-to-promisequantity of items that can be produced and mad available at a later dateATPCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-37ATPCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-38ATPCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-39ATP in April = (10+100) – 70 = 40 ATP in May = 100 – 110 = -10ATP in June = 100 – 50 = 50= 30= 0Take excess units from AprilCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-40Rule Based ATPProduct RequestIs the product available at this location?Is an alternative product available at an alternate location?Is an alternative product available at this location?Is this product available at a different location?Available-to-promiseAllocate inventoryCapable-to-promise dateIs the customer willing to wait for the product?Available-to-promiseAllocate inventoryRevise master scheduleTrigger productionLose saleYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoAggregate Planning for ServicesMost services cannot be inventoriedDemand for services is difficult to predictCapacity is also difficult to predictService capacity must be provided at the appropriate place and timeLabor is usually the most constraining resource for servicesCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-41Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-42Yield ManagementCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-43Yield ManagementYield ManagementCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-44 NO-SHOWS PROBABILITY P(N < X) 0 .15 .00 1 .25 .15 2 .30 .40 3 .30 .70Optimal probability of no-showsP(n < x)  = = .517CuCu + Co7575 + 70.517Hotel should be overbooked by two roomsCopyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.14-45Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.All rights reserved. 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