Quản trị kinh doanh - Chapter 14: Project risk management

CHAPTER 14Project Risk ManagementRisk Event GraphRisk Management Process Risk Management Process (cont.) Step 1: Establishing the risk contextStep 2: Risk identificationStep 3: Risk analysisStep 4: Risk evaluationStep 5: Risk treatmentStep 6: Contingency planningStep 1: Establishing the Risk ContextWhat is the organisation’s context for risk?How does this affect the project environment?How are ‘individual’ risk tolerances levelled?Do you use the ‘As Low As Reasonably Possible’ (ALARP) approach?Step 2: Risk IdentificationWBSRBSRisk ProfilesLessons learnedDelphi methodSWOTOthersStep 2: Risk Identification (cont.) The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) Step3: Risk Analysis Probability refers to the probability of the event. (This is otherwise known as the likelihood of the risk occurring.)Impact refers to the impact of the event. (This is otherwise known as the consequence of the risk if the event occurs.)Step 3: Risk Analysis Simple ‘inherent’ risk analysisStep 3: Risk Analysis (cont.) Impact considered over multiple criteriaStep 3: Risk Analysis (cont.) Decision tree analysisStep 4: Risk Evaluation The purpose of risk evaluation is to assist in making decisions, based on the outcomes of the risk analysis, about which risks need treatment and the priority for treatment implementation.Risk evaluation involves comparing the level of risk found during the analysis process with risk criteria established when the context was considered. Based on this comparison, the need for treatment can be considered. (AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009)Step 5: Risk Treatment for Threat Risks Mitigating riskAvoiding riskTransferring riskAccepting (retaining) riskStep 5: Risk Treatment (cont.) Mitigation and residual risk assessmentStep 5: Risk Treatmentfor Opportunity RisksExploitShareEnhanceAcceptStep 6: Contingency Planning A contingency plan is an alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event becomes a reality (an issue). Step 6: Contingency Planning (cont.) Risk contingency planStep 6: Contingency Planning (cont.) Common methods for handling riskTechnical risksSchedule risksCost risksFunding risksContingency Funds and RiskBudget reservesManagement reservesTime buffersHow are risk contingencies managed in your organisations?Risk Management PlanRisk context Risk methodology Risk roles and responsibilities Risk escalation process Risk reporting Risk audits and health checksLessons learned Risk Monitoring and ReviewKey Terms5 WhysALARP AS/NZS/ISO 31000:2009assumptionsconstraintscontingency plan contingency planningdecision treesdecision tree analysis Delphi MethodFailure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) impact (consequence)mitigation strategy (risk response)Monte Carlo techniqueopportunity riskPERTPERT simulationprobability (likelihood)risk analysisrisk breakdown structure (RBS)risk contextrisk evaluationrisk identificationRisk Management Planrisk monitoring and review risk profileRisk Registerrisk severity matrix root cause analysisthreat risk